San Francisco Frontiers - French PM at risk in hostile parliament vote

The conservative Barnier, who formed a minority government in September after an inconclusive general election, lives under the constant threat of a no-confidence vote that could force him to quit.

Key to any such vote is Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) that has opposed several parts of the government's 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing to be debated in the lower-house National Assembly on Monday.

In the latest concession to the RN, the prime minister's office said it was scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year.

If Barnier fails to get a parliamentary majority for his measures, he is expected to use executive powers to adopt them without a vote, a procedure under article 49.3 of the French constitution.

Such a move could trigger a vote of no confidence that he could survive only if Le Pen's party abstains, with Barnier having little hope of finding any left wing support.

A no-confidence motion could come as early as Wednesday.

If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

- 'Accept to negotiate' -

RN party leader Jordan Bardella said Monday that a censure motion was likely.

"The National Rally will trigger a no-confidence vote, except of course if there is a last-minute miracle," he told RTL radio.

Le Pen reacted icily Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan.

"We have taken note," she told AFP, calling the stance "extremely closed-minded and partisan behaviour".

She demanded in an interview with La Tribune newspaper that Barnier accept further "discussion" about her party's wishes.

"All Mr Barnier has to do is accept to negotiate," she said.

Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon on Monday said Barnier's team remained "open to dialogue" to find a compromise.

The RN is the largest single party in the 577-seat National Assembly, with more than 140 deputies.

On Thursday, Barnier scrapped a previously planned increase on an electricity tax, in a concession to critics.

Saint-Martin has highlighted that the budget proposals have already been discussed by a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday's debate and changed following talks between National Assembly deputies and upper house senators.

"To reject this text is to reject a democratic agreement," he said.

- Debt threat -

The Senate, where right wing parties have a majority, partly approved the 2025 budget Sunday, giving a green light to government revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left.

The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, told Barnier it would vote against him if he used article 49.3 to push through a budget.

Saint-Martin warned that the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt that has reached rare heights because of the country's shaky financial situation.

France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that "despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply -- with a delay -- with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances".

Barnier has promised to improve France's fiscal position by 60 billion euros ($64 billion) in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from 6.1 percent of GDP this year.

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Q.Taylor--SFF