San Francisco Frontiers - France's PM risks tumbling in hostile parliament vote

Barnier, a conservative appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September after an inconclusive general election, has no majority in parliament and lives under the constant threat of a no-confidence vote that would, if successful, force him and his team to step down.

Key to any such vote is Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) that has expressed its opposition to several aspects of the government's 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing project to be debated in the lower-house National Assembly on Monday afternoon.

These include planned cuts in employer social contributions, a partial end to inflation-indexing of pensions and a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy.

If Barnier fails to find a parliamentary majority backing the measures, he is expected to use executive powers to adopt them without a vote, a procedure called "49.3" after the constitutional article detailing the prerogative.

Such a move, however, would trigger a vote of no confidence that he could survive only if Le Pen's party abstains, with Barnier having little hope of finding any support left of centre.

A no-confidence motion could come as early as Wednesday.

If the government falls over article 49.3, it would be the first successful such no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou's government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.

- 'Accept to negotiate' -

RN party leader Jordan Bardella said Monday morning that such a motion was likely.

"The National Rally will trigger a no-confidence vote, except of course if there is a last-minute miracle," he told RTL radio.

Le Pen reacted icily Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan.

"We have taken note," she told AFP, calling the stance "extremely closed-minded and partisan behaviour".

She demanded in an interview with the Sunday edition of La Tribune that Barnier accept further "discussion" about her party's wishes.

"All Mr Barnier has to do is accept to negotiate," she said.

The RN is the largest in the 577-seat National Assembly, with more than 140 deputies.

On Thursday, Barnier had already scrapped a previously planned increase on an electricity tax, in a concession to critics.

Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin pointed to the work done on the budgetary proposals in a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday's debate, saying the current proposal was already the outcome of compromise between National Assembly deputies and members of the French upper house, the Senate.

"To reject this text is to reject a democratic agreement," he said.

- 'Open to dialogue' -

The right-wing-majority Senate partly approved the government's 2025 budget Sunday, giving a green light to its revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left.

Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon on Monday said Barnier's team remained "open to dialogue" to find a compromise.

The government can still modify its draft law until the very last minute and National Assembly speaker Yael Braun-Pivet on Sunday urged Barnier to do so.

"From the start, I have called on the government to negotiate with the various political groups in the National Assembly," she told broadcaster Radio J.

The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, told Barnier it would vote against him if he deployed article 49.3, saying it would be left with "no other choice".

Saint-Martin warned that the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt that has reached rare heights because of the country's shaky financial situation.

France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that "despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply -- with a delay -- with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances".

Barnier has promised to improve France's fiscal position by 60 billion euros ($64 billion) in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from 6.1 percent of GDP this year.

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Z.Phillips--SFF