San Francisco Frontiers - Opposition defeat of Erdogan redraws Turkey's political map

"You know how it feels when the sun rises? Now it's like a second sun has risen. We are so happy," said Murat Akgun, 46, a small business owner in Istanbul where Erdogan had hoped to re-establish his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

With almost all ballots counted but no official results announced, the Republican People's Party (CHP) claimed all major cities and expanded into some Anatolian provinces that were considered Erdogan territory.

It took 35 of Turkey's 81 provincial capitals to just 24 for the president's AKP, with pro-Kurdish party DEM taking 10 and two for Islamist party Yeniden Refah -- a new appearance on the political scene that helped sap AKP support.

Istanbul, the capital Ankara, Adana, Bursa and Antalya were among cities to elect CHP mayors Sunday, less than a year after the knockback of a failed presidential challenge last May.

Observers called it Erdogan's worst election defeat since his party took power in 2002.

Many blamed inflation running at 67 percent and a crashing devaluation of the lira currency over the past year.

There are "price hikes for everything," said Zulfiye Durtek Durmaz, a 28-year-old housewife in Istanbul, calling the government's response "merciless" with "taxes on everything".

"I am a mother of two children, what can we offer our children? Buy a loaf of bread, see how much it costs... we need (Erdogan) to go away," she added.

The result "can only be explained by the economy," wrote Abdulkadir Selvi, a commentator for pro-government paper Hurriyet seen as close to the Erdogan camp.

"A new wind has blown" through Turkey and the government now faces "a new political equation", he added.

The European Union's top diplomat Josep Borrell praised the "calm and professional manner" of the election, in a message on X, formerly Twitter. He added that it points to the public "commitment to local democracy".

"Looking forward to working together on reforms bringing Turkey closer to the EU," he added.

The EU is seeking better ties after negotiations to join the bloc were frozen in 2018. Turkey has been a candidate since 1999.

- 'Turning point' -

Erdogan himself acknowledged a "turning point" and vowed to "respect the decision of the nation".

His finance minister Mehmet Simsek wrote on X that the government aimed to "permanently reduce inflation to single digits" with measures including public spending curbs and tight monetary policy.

The Turkish central bank has already increased its headline interest rate to 50 percent, from eight percent in less than a year.

Pro-government dailies Hurriyet and Yeni Safah highlighted the voters' "message" to the government.

Secular nationalist daily Sozcu, which opposes Erdogan, splashed "revolution at the ballot box" across its front page, while major opposition paper Cumhuriyet hailed a "historic victory".

The CHP victory may have been expected in Istanbul and Ankara, the economic and political capitals which the party claimed in 2019, but observers saw the broader anti-Erdogan surge as redrawing the electoral map.

Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition's champion since taking the mayor's seat five years ago in a hard-fought battle, now looks set for a presidential run in 2028.

- 'Resurgence of democracy' -

The vote "marks the end of democratic erosion in Turkey and the resurgence of democracy," Imamoglu told supporters, saying his victory had "immense significance".

"Imamoglu is Erdogan's opponent in the country's next national elections," Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute posted on X.

The Istanbul mayor "has a chance to become Turkey's president... Turkey never fails to surprise -- (the) game is on," he added.

Erdogan, who became prime minister in 2003 and president in 2014, said in early March that these municipal elections would be his last.

The 70-year-old leader nevertheless told dismayed supporters overnight that they "must not waste" the four years remaining before the next presidential vote.

K.Hernandez--SFF