San Francisco Frontiers - WTO talks risk train wreck finish as deadline looms

Despite a looming deadline that has been repeatedly extended to allow for a compromise, negotiators have yet to secure consensus on any of the big items on the agenda of the World Trade Organization's 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi, said a senior European Union official.

Barring last-minute progress, the conference is due to end with no deals on agriculture, fisheries or even a moratorium on customs duties for digital transmissions that has been regularly renewed since 1998, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With a closing ceremony now scheduled for 1800 GMT following five extensions, there is little room for major breakthroughs, although ongoing haggling between heads of delegations could still create some headway, the official said.

The WTO -- the only international body dealing with the rules of trade between nations -- is under pressure to secure some wins at MC13 to prove its relevance amid geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds.

Its 12th ministerial conference in Geneva in 2022 was hailed as a landmark success following deals on fisheries and a commitment by members to restore a now-defunct dispute settlement body before the end of this year.

"Our challenge this week is to demonstrate that MC12 wasn't a one-off miracle," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said on Monday.

- 'Makes or breaks' -

The WTO meeting in the capital of the United Arab Emirates was initially scheduled to wrap up on Thursday.

But it was extended beyond its scheduled deadline five times amid rifts between the body's 164 members who must reach unanimous consensus to chalk up any deal under WTO rules.

With farmer protests sweeping Europe and India, agriculture agreements have emerged as a particularly sensitive topic of debate.

Member states were trying to negotiate a text listing the subjects that merit further discussion.

A key sticking point was a demand by India and other member states for permanent rules governing public stockholding of food reserves to replace temporary measures adopted by the WTO.

"There is certainly at least one country that is saying they can't leave here without a substantive agreement on agriculture," said a WTO ambassador.

"It's the moment to decide whether that particular country is going to be a consensus builder or consensus blocker," added the ambassador who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Negotiators were also trying to hammer out a new deal on fisheries subsidies.

After a 2022 deal which banned subsidies contributing to illegal, undeclared and unregulated fishing, the WTO was hoping to conclude a second package focusing on subsidies which result in overcapacity and overfishing.

Negotiations in recent months at the WTO headquarters in Geneva have enabled a draft text to be brought forward for a second fisheries deal.

It provides flexibility and advantages for developing countries.

But some -- notably India -- are demanding further concessions, including transition periods that others consider to be too long.

After all-night negotiations, a new draft fisheries agreement was brought forward early Friday, but it has yet to generate unanimous consensus.

- E-commerce moratorium -

Also at stake at MC13 is the fate of an e-commerce customs moratorium.

Since 1998, WTO members have agreed not to impose customs duties on electronic transmission of digital products.

The moratorium has been regularly extended since then, but objections by India and other member states are now throwing it into jeopardy.

On Thursday, India, along with Brazil, once again threatened to block the moratorium's extension, arguing that it harms customs revenues, according to several sources close to the talks.

The EU and the UK are among the most vocal advocates of an extension, saying that many countries would lose considerably more in gross domestic product than they would gain in tariffs if the moratorium lapses.

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the impact of the moratorium on overall government revenue is below 0.1 percent.

If the moratorium is not extended at MC13 it will expire before the end of the month.

T.Rivera--SFF