San Francisco Frontiers - US Republicans gamble on immigration as major 2024 election issue

With the White House race looking almost certain to be a rematch of 2020, the Republican has been hammering his Democratic successor over record numbers of undocumented migrants being picked up by patrols at the southern border.

Senators are working to unveil one of the harshest immigration bills in decades, containing significant restrictions that Biden has committed to signing into law -- that could include Republican priorities such temporary border shutdowns and an end to the "catch and release" of migrants.

But they're hitting a major roadbump: Trump has an iron grip on Republicans leading the House of Representatives, and -- unwilling to hand Biden a win before November's election -- has sworn to kill the deal.

"As the leader of our party, there is zero chance I will support this horrible open borders betrayal of America," Trump, who is close to securing the Republican presidential nomination, said in a Las Vegas speech on Saturday.

Biden ran on restoring "humanity" to immigration -- ending controversial Trump-era policies that led to families being separated at the US-Mexico border.

But Republicans dismiss his term as a failure, pointing to statistics showing "migrant encounters" -- when a border agent picks up an illegal migrant after they've crossed into the US -- reaching a record high of 302,000 in December.

For months, polling has shown Americans see the migrant crisis among their top concerns -- and blame Democrats for the surge.

- 'Lost in the game' -

A cornerstone of the 2016 campaign that propelled him to the White House, Trump is leaning on immigration once again to energize his right wing base as he seeks to lock in his third nomination.

He has complained of "insane asylums" worldwide being emptied into America, and drawn comparisons with Hitler over his warnings of illegal immigrants "poisoning the blood of our country."

But his dire auguries of a nation under existential threat risk sounding disingenuous, say analysts, given his stance against a deal that could address Republican concerns.

Biden has indicated his openness to "massive changes" to address the border crisis. However Mike Johnson -- the speaker of the House, who says he talks frequently with Trump -- has been laying the groundwork to reject the agreement.

"Republicans benefit from chaos at the border and Democrats benefit from both a solution and the Republican House refusing to act," said Peter Loge, a media and public affairs professor at George Washington University (GWU).

"Unfortunately, the people and communities who live the causes and consequences of migration get lost in the game."

But there are signs of disquiet among the Republican ranks.

- 'Political naysaying' -

House Republicans in districts won by Biden have voiced concerns about walking away from the deal -- especially when the party is intent on impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as soon as next week over the border crisis.

"The risk for Republicans, including Trump, is pulling defeat from the jaws of a rare bipartisan victory may only play well with Republican primary voters, just a sliver of the American electorate," said Mark Bayer, a former chief of staff in Congress and now president of communications firm Bayer Strategic Consulting.

"Voters who'll decide the next president in November's general election, including more mainstream Republicans and independents, want Washington to work. They want solutions to everyday problems that impact their lives, not nakedly political naysaying."

Biden is facing pressure for action from his own side, with frustrated northeastern Democrats forced to deal with busloads of migrants being sent to their cities by Texas Republican governor Greg Abbott.

But he will also have to convince a handful of rebels in his own party, with some Hispanic lawmakers strongly opposed to the immigration and border security changes.

"President Biden declaring he will sign a bill, knowing Republicans won't give him one, allows him to both take a strong position on immigration and point to Republicans as being inept ideologues," added Loge, the GWU professor.

"The question then becomes who the public blames more for failure to act, and how that blame gets translated into votes in the handful of US states that will decide the 2024 election."

W.Thompson--SFF