San Francisco Frontiers - Markets extend rally on hopes Fed near end of rate hike cycle

Global markets have been bubbling this week on hopes for an end to monetary tightening aimed at taming inflation, which was fuelled by post-Covid reopening, supply chain snarls and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

That has come just as China pledges to introduce measures to kickstart its stuttering economy and bring an end to a painful crackdown on the huge tech sector.

Wall Street cheered news Thursday that wholesale prices rose less than expected in June. That followed Wednesday's report showing the consumer price index below forecasts.

While the CPI remains above the Fed's target, analysts said there is growing confidence that officials were winning their battle and the economy could avoid a feared recession.

US traders pushed the S&P 500 up almost one percent to its highest finish since April last year, while the Nasdaq surged more than one percent as tech firms benefit from a lower rate environment.

"The back-to-back softer inflation prints have further convinced traders that the Fed is topping out this month as thoughts of a September hike get blotted out," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

"As a result, after numerous fits and starts, the door appears wide open for global investors to strap on those peak Fed trades."

The upbeat mood on Wall Street filtered through to Asia, where Hong Kong rose for a fifth successive day thanks to a bounce in Chinese tech giants, while Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Jakarta also gained.

However, Tokyo struggled owing to a pick-up in the yen against the dollar, which has come under pressure against its peers owing to lower expectations about US rates.

The Japanese currency was holding below 138 per dollar, its strongest level since May, while the euro was at a 17-month high above $1.12. Sterling was also hovering above $1.31.

However, Marvin Loh, a strategist at State Street, warned the Fed still had a battle to get inflation down to its target.

"Getting towards two percent is still going to take a lot of work," he told Bloomberg News.

"Higher for longer is still going to be a message that comes out of the Fed and ultimately might be appropriate."

And Fed Bank of San Francisco boss Mary Daly said that while the latest CPI report was "very positive", she remained in a "wait-and-see mode on that, because I remain resolute to bring inflation down to two percent".

Focus now turns to corporate earnings season, with traders keen to hear firms' outlooks in light of higher rates and signs economies were slowing.

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 32,493.82 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 19,451.40

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,241.92

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1237 from $1.1230 on Thursday

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 137.52 yen from 138.03 yen

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3130 from $1.3134

Euro/pound: UP at 85.56 pence from 85.47 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $77.09 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $81.50 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP 0.1 percent at 34,395.14 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 7,440.21 (close)

R.Baker--SFF