San Francisco Frontiers - July 4th weekend celebrations to test US travel system

The five-day stretch culminates in Tuesday's Independence Day celebration, a highlight of the US summer calendar, marked by barbecues, lazing by the pool and fireworks.

A record 50.7 million Americans are expected to venture at least 50 miles (80 kilometers) from home in the period heading into July 4th, eclipsing the prior peak of 49 million in 2019, according to the American Automobile Association.

AAA expects elevated volumes across travel modes, with the heaviest road traffic on Friday when travel times will be 30 percent over normal.

Airport chaos in recent days has put many travelers on guard as airlines struggle to meet torrid demand.

"We talked about flying," Nick Kendall said Friday as he awaited a train to Virginia at New York's Penn Station. "I'm really glad we took the train."

Kendall, who travels regularly for work, said planes have been packed for months in a big shift from the sleepy early pandemic period.

US airlines had spoken more hopefully about improvements this summer, but this week's difficulties suggested it may have been wishful thinking.

Intermittent rainstorms, thunder and lightning in New York and other East Coast destinations wreaked havoc, forcing the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights to and from the three major New York-area airports since Monday.

Travelers are also tracking smoky air from Canada that's moving east from the Midwest. And extreme heat in Texas and other states has driven talk of a federal disaster declaration to mitigate public health risks.

- Paying up -

Travel experts see this weekend's expected historic tourist volume as reflecting favorable factors, including a strong US job market and a moderation in gasoline prices.

More than four-fifths of the travelers over the long weekend will be going by car, benefiting from the 25 percent drop in gasoline prices. But they will likely experience "grief at the grill," as Rabobank said of double-digit price increases on beef, lettuce, soda, white bread and potato chips.

Even before the pandemic, travel industry experts had described a greater preference among young consumers for experiential consumption compared with earlier cohorts.

If anything, those trends were bolstered by the isolation of the pandemic years, helping to fuel the current go-go spending on hotels, airlines, cruise ships and booking websites.

"Travel remains really robust," said Siye Desta, an equity analyst at CFRA Research. "There hasn't been any sign of any pullback in consumer spending in travel, even though prices have meaningfully increased."

- Stormy weather ahead? -

For people traveling this weekend by plane, the biggest worry will the continuation of recent days' airport turmoil.

This week has seen another round of horror stories of flight cancellations, stranded luggage and airport mass sleep-ins that have become a recurring theme in recent years.

"It was a madhouse at the airport," said Jason Rinka, who learned upon landing in New York from Beijing that his connecting flight to Raleigh, North Carolina was canceled.

Rinka, along with his wife and daughter, stayed in New York for a few days. They were heading via train Friday to Washington, where they would catch a flight to North Carolina for the first visit with family in four years due to Covid-19.

The circuitous itinerary saves the family more than $1,000 compared with last-minute direct flights from New York to Raleigh, Rinka said.

United Airlines, the carrier most at center of this week's Big Apple travel nightmare, blamed understaffing at the Federal Aviation Administration for the outsized impact of the storm.

But pilots and flight attendant unions pointed at United management, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg noted that other major carriers have recovered from severe weather.

Buttigieg described United's disruptions as "elevated but moving in the right direction," adding on Twitter Friday that the FAA "continues to monitor weather and smoke."

United still had more than 225 cancellations and 500 delays Friday morning, more than other major US carriers, according to FlightAware.

Aviation experts note the industry has generally struggled to ramp up capacity to meet post-pandemic need, with personnel shortfalls dogging the system and fewer planes than expected, due in part to delayed deliveries from Boeing and Airbus caused by supply chain issues.

"Airlines have less of a buffer today," said Chris Raite, who analyzes aviation at Third Bridge, a research consultancy.

P.Thomas--SFF