San Francisco Frontiers - Polish presidential election rivals neck and neck

Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, a government ally, was narrowly ahead with 50.3 percent of votes against nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42, on 49.7 percent, according to the Ipsos exit poll.

The poll results were well within the margin of error.

An exit poll with a lower margin of error is expected later on Sunday but election officials forecast that the final result will only be known early on Monday.

"We won... by a whisker," Trzaskowski said at his election night rally. "I said it would be very close," he added, thanking his voters.

"I believe that the president's first task will be to reach out to those who did not vote for me," he said.

Nawrocki refused to concede, saying: "We will win during the night."

Victory for Trzaskowski would strengthen Poland's status in the European Union and boost the government's progressive agenda, particularly on LGBTQ and abortion rights.

A win for Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, could make Poland a more awkward partner in Europe and may lead to fresh parliamentary elections.

Nawrocki, a lifelong boxer, said: "I will win" after voting in Warsaw.

"Poland should be strong, Poland should be independent," he told reporters.

In the central town of Halinow, Agnieszka Lewinska, a 56-year-old cleaner, said she was voting for Trzaskowski.

"He's educated, speaks many languages, is intelligent," she said.

But Warsaw pensioner Lila Chojecka, 60, said she cast her ballot for Nawrocki.

"Catholic values are important to me. I know he shares them," she told AFP.

- 'Particularly important' vote -

Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief, said these elections "were particularly important" after he voted in the seaport of Sopot.

The president in Poland, a fast-growing economy of 38 million people, has the power to veto legislation and is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

A Nawrocki victory would embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023.

Many of his supporters want stricter curbs on immigration and advocate for conservative social values and more sovereignty for the country within the European Union.

"We should not give in to European pressure," 40-year-old Agnieszka Prokopiuk, a homemaker, said before the vote.

"We need to make our own way," she told AFP in the eastern city of Biala Podlaska.

- Ties with Ukraine -

Poland, an EU and NATO member, has been a crucial diplomatic supporter of neighbouring Ukraine as it fights off Russia's invasion.

It is also a key supply route for Western arms and aid going into Ukraine.

Victory for Nawrocki could complicate these ties as he opposes NATO membership for Ukraine and has spoken of toughening rules for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland.

Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, called the election "a real clash of civilisations" because of the wide policy differences between the candidates.

Many Trzaskowski voters back greater integration within the EU and an acceleration of social reforms.

Trzaskowski supports introducing civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing Poland's near-total ban on abortion.

Malgorzata Wojciechowska, a tour guide and teacher in her fifties, said Polish women "unfortunately do not have the same rights as our European friends".

"I hope that Rafal Trzaskowski will relaunch the debate on abortion so that we can finally live in a free country," she told AFP.

The election's result was expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski could mobilise enough supporters and whether far-right voters would cast their ballots for Nawrocki.

Far-right candidates secured more than 21 percent of the vote in the election's first round, which Trzaskowski won by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki.

I.Rodriguez--SFF