San Francisco Frontiers - Spotlight on UK-UAE ties amid Manchester City scandal

"I can't intervene more in the process. It would be wrong for me to do that," UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the BBC after the Abu Dhabi-backed club was found guilty of violating Premier League rules between 2009 and 2018.

"I would be really concerned to lose them. They've been such a huge partner in the building of modern Manchester," said Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, a region that has visibly benefited from UAE investments beyond the club.

On Thursday, a Downing Street spokesman appeared to backtrack, saying Burnham had made clear "the initial judgement is serious and there can't be any suggestion that anyone is above the rules".

A takeover in 2008 by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who is both vice-president and deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, catapulted City from a mid-level to elite club, winning eight English Premier League titles and one Champions League trophy.

"The scale of the transformation of Manchester City... delivered enormous soft power gains by association for Abu Dhabi," Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East researcher at Rice University's Baker Institute, told AFP.

"'Going to the Etihad' became part of the sporting vernacular," said Ulrichsen, referring to the naming of City's stadium after the UAE's national airline Etihad.

But the judgement, handed down Tuesday by an independent commission, casts a shadow over that success, finding City guilty of "sham" contracts to get around rules governing how much Premier League clubs can spend.

"One of Britain's closest and oldest allies in the Middle East has apparently spent over a decade systematically desecrating one of the most treasured elements of British culture," David Wearing, assistant professor in International Relations at the University of Sussex, told AFP.

The club has said it intends to appeal the ruling. It risks sanctions ranging from being stripped of its titles to being relegated from the league.

- 'Too big to fail' -

The fallout could also directly affect Abu Dhabi.

In addition to its powerful owner, Sheikh Mansour, the club's chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak is a prominent figure in the Emirati government and business world.

"The personification of the club with two of the most senior figures in Abu Dhabi make it likely that the leadership in the UAE will take the ruling very personally," said Ulrichsen.

"The challenge for the British government... will be to ensure that the judgement is treated as a regulatory matter rather than a political issue."

Former City and Football Association chairman David Bernstein told Times Radio he was "concerned" about the "danger of political interference".

Calling for justice to be done, Bernstein suggested the possibility that City is "too big to fail" or that there could be "national interest" at play.

The UK government did not reply to AFP's request for comment.

Etihad Airways, City's main sponsor since 2009, announced that it is considering legal action against the Premier League, accusing it of damaging its reputation without being allowed to respond.

Abu Dhabi could also potentially use its investment decisions as leverage, according to Wearing.

But the balance of power remains skewed in favour of London, Wearing added, pointing out that as a "relatively small country in a very volatile region", the UAE needs good relations with the UK.

The UAE is London's 20th-largest trading partner, accounting for 1.3 per cent of UK trade, despite significant investments in energy, infrastructure and technology.

"The case may create reputational sensitivities," said Salma Thani, a Gulf Studies specialist at the American University of Sharjah.

But the relationship between the two countries "long predates the acquisition of Manchester City and has developed across diplomacy, commerce, education, and security," said Thani.

"It has depth beyond sport."

D.Brown--SFF