San Francisco Frontiers - Tanzania votes but with opposition excluded

President Samia Suluhu Hassan, 65, is determined to cement her position with an emphatic victory that will silence critics within her own party, analysts say.

She was elevated from vice-president in 2021 on the death of her iron-fisted predecessor, John Magufuli, but faced opposition as the country's first female leader.

Hassan, who comes from the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar, was initially feted by democratic campaigners for easing restrictions on the opposition and media, but hopes soon faded.

A recent Amnesty International report detailed a "wave of terror" including "enforced disappearance and torture... and extrajudicial killings of opposition figures and activists".

Human Rights Watch said "the authorities have suppressed the political opposition and critics of the ruling party, stifled the media, and failed to ensure the electoral commission's independence."

Hassan's main challenger, Tundu Lissu, is on trial for treason, facing a potential death penalty. His party, Chadema, is barred from running.

The only other serious candidate, Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, was disqualified on technicalities.

There are fears that even members of the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), are being targeted.

Humphrey Polepole, a former CCM spokesman and ambassador to Cuba, went missing from his home this month after resigning and criticising Hassan. His family found blood stains in his home.

The Tanganyika Law Society says it has confirmed 83 abductions since Hassan came to power, with another 20 reported in recent weeks.

- 'New normal' -

Hassan has done nothing to remove the "thugs" with which Magufuli stacked the intelligence service, said an analyst in the country's economic hub of Dar es Salaam, requesting anonymity for fear of reprisals.

They are laser-focused on any sign of internal dissent and throttled the opposition ahead of the last election in 2020.

"We thought Magufuli was a blip and the 2020 elections were an abnormality. My worry is that this is the new normal," the analyst said.

Protests are rare in Tanzania, in part thanks to a relatively healthy economy, which grew by 5.5 percent last year according to the World Bank, on the back of strong agriculture, tourism and mining sectors.

Hassan has promised big infrastructure projects and universal health insurance in a bid to win over voters.

But police said they arrested 17 people this weekend in the northwestern Kagera region who were planning unrest on election day.

"I want to assure citizens that there will be no security threat on voting day," said Hassan at an election rally last month.

"We are well-prepared for security. Those who have failed to participate in the competition should not seek to disrupt our election."

Q.Nelson--SFF