San Francisco Frontiers - Colombia's top drug cartel in decline, may lay down arms: negotiator

The Clan del Golfo, which has origins in right-wing paramilitary organizations and calls itself the Gaitanista Army of Colombia, concluded a first round of peace talks in Qatar last week with the leftist government of Colombian President Gustavo Petro.

The talks are aimed at the group's demobilization in exchange for judicial benefits and security guarantees.

Alvaro Jimenez, the president's chief negotiator, said Wednesday that the Clan's "main activity" was illegal gold mining, and the government is offering them the chance to lay down their arms in exchange for "seeing their children grow up," even if they have to serve a few years in prison.

"They also know that this is an important moment and that they cannot grow any more, they have reached their peak," Jimenez told AFP in Bogota.

"What is beginning is a 'decline', from our point of view."

The cartel has suffered blows such as the arrest and 2022 extradition to the United States of its top commander Dairo Antonio Usuga, alias "Otoniel."

Its new leaders agreed to approach Petro to end the conflict that dates back to the mid-2000s.

The cartel, which also engages in racketeering, migrant smuggling and drug trafficking, counts between 6,000 and 7,000 members and collaborators, of whom at most 2,400 are armed, according to Jimenez.

- Prison terms -

While the price of gold is breaking records and global demand for cocaine is increasing, the government is offering Clan del Golfo members "a place to live within the Colombian legal system" so they can return to their families, Jimenez told AFP.

"It may not seem like much, but today that element is important for the leadership" of the cartel, he said.

Petro has been criticized for his policy of negotiating with armed groups, without having yet signed any peace agreements. Experts say that many such groups have grown more powerful in the meantime.

Congress is due to debate a bill to determine the legal benefits for armed groups that agree to disarm.

Any pact with the Clan del Golfo will involve prison terms, according to Jimenez.

"The discussion may revolve around how much (time) and how or where" they will have to serve prison sentences, the negotiator said.

- No ceasefire -

Petro's negotiations come as US President Donald Trump has removed Colombia from the list of countries allied in the fight against drugs, considering its efforts insufficient. Colombia reached historic highs in drug crops and cocaine production in 2023.

While Trump's advisors "persist in their vision of a permanent armed war on drugs," the Colombian government believes negotiations can provide an opportunity to end the conflict, Jimenez told AFP.

This is the second time Petro has reached out to the Clan del Golfo. A first attempt at a ceasefire failed in March 2023 after illegal gold miners blocking roads in northwestern Colombia, allegedly on the orders of drug traffickers, attacked security forces.

Jimenez said a truce is not currently being considered, nor is an end to the bombing of the cartel, an unprecedented action ordered by Petro.

There is a "clear criterion that we are not going to suspend operations against them," the negotiator said.

- Qatar's experience -

Confidential talks with the cartel's leadership began in December 2023, leading to the public meetings this month in Qatar.

Talks in Doha saw the Clan del Golfo and the Colombian government agree to develop a plan to "transfer power from the armed group" in five municipalities of the Antioquia and Choco regions -- strongholds of the cartel -- to "institutional power" with a government presence, according to Jimenez.

The group will also eradicate its drug crops there and, he said, has committed to respecting next year's general election process, when Colombians will decide Petro's successor.

H.King--SFF