San Francisco Frontiers - In backing Brazil's Bolsonaro, Trump may be helping Lula

Brazilians on both sides of the political aisle have been angered by a threatened 50 percent tariff on exports to the US -- a penalty for what Trump calls a "witch hunt" against ex-president Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro is on trial for allegedly plotting a coup against Lula, who narrowly beat him in a bitter 2022 election that deeply divided voters in the South American powerhouse.

Lula's popularity has tanked amid persistent inflation, anger over an alleged social security scam to defraud retirees, and a proposal to raise tax on financial transactions.

But he seems to have been bolstered by Washington's threats: rallying Brazilians against a common meddlesome enemy.

"Trump gave Lula a great gift," analyst Andre Cesar of the HOLD marketing consultancy told AFP.

Rejecting US "interference," Lula's administration has launched a patriotic campaign under the slogan: "Brazil ('Brasil' in Portuguese) is written with an S for Sovereignty."

The former trade unionist has been sporting a baseball cap with the words "Brazil belongs to Brazilians," and made fun of Trump at a recent event by offering to send him a local fruit as a treatment against "bad mood" and "tariff fights."

Lula is also strategizing with leaders of industry and agribusiness who stand to lose much in a tariff war, but are traditionally allies in Bolsonaro's conservative "Bibles, bullets and beef" coalition.

"Lula taxes the rich, Bolsonaro taxes Brazilians," rings another slogan adopted by the administration in Brasilia.

The president's entourage has been relishing an apparent political boon from the threatened tariff they nevertheless hope will never come to pass.

"Bolsonarismo wants to hold Brazil hostage to save Bolsonaro. It's great" for the left, a member of Lula's team told AFP on condition of anonymity, referring to the movement named after the ex-president's supporters.

"Now we need to make the most of it until next year," when Brazil goes to the polls to elect a president for the next four years.

Lula, 79, has not said whether he will seek reelection. Bolsonaro, for his part, has been ruled ineligible to hold office by a court that found him guilty of spreading misinformation about Brazil's electoral system.

- 'Make Brazil Free Again' -

On the back foot, few in Brazil's political right welcomed the tariff move despite having agitated for US measures against Lula's administration and the courts for their "persecution" of Bolsonaro.

Among the rare defenders was congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro -- the former president's son -- who wrote: "Thank you President Trump. Make Brazil Free Again," in an all-caps social media post after the US president's own writing style.

Bolsonaro himself was more guarded in his response, and at pains to stress he was "not happy" about the tariff pain Brazilian producers would suffer.

Sao Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas -- a possible 2026 right-wing presidential candidate -- also toned down his usual antagonism towards Lula to call for "joint efforts" against US tariffs that would inflict deep pain on Brazil's richest state and its lucrative aerospace industry.

Geraldo Monteiro, a political science professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said Trump's threats "may have shifted the game" by "further isolating the far-right" in Brazil.

"There was an unexpected convergence of interests between Lula's government and the business class, in addition to a convergence of the political class to align with Lula," he told AFP.

T.Martin--SFF