San Francisco Frontiers - What happens next in S. Korea as Yoon's impeachment trial wraps up

AFP takes a look at what happens next.

- What's next? -

The Constitutional Court's eight judges will determine behind closed doors whether to uphold the December parliamentary vote that removed Yoon from office.

They will need to decide "whether the declaration of the martial law violates the constitution and whether the president had the will to uphold the constitution," Kim Hyun-jung, a researcher at the Korea University Institute of Law, told AFP.

Experts predict that verdict to be delivered in mid-March.

Precedent offers some clues about how long it could take: late president Roh Moo-hyun was reinstated by the Constitutional Court after he was impeached by parliament after 14 days.

In the case of former president Park Geun-hye, who was removed from office in 2017 over a corruption scandal, it took only 11 days.

Both presidents received their verdicts on a Friday, prompting domestic media to speculate whether that pattern will hold for Yoon.

- Will the court strike it down? -

The general consensus in South Korea is that it is unlikely.

"Legal scholars and experts agree that a unanimous ruling in favour of impeachment would be made by the Constitutional Court judges," Kim said.

Yoon's attempt to avoid multiple arrest warrants from investigative agencies and refusal to cooperate with prosecutors is "grave", she added.

"It is very hard to see any genuine commitment from Yoon to upholding the constitution."

And unlike Park's trial, which involved a myriad of cases, Yun Bok-nam, president of Lawyers for a Democratic Society, told AFP that "legally speaking, the case is quite clear-cut".

Yoon's impeachment case only concerns whether he violated the constitution when declaring martial law on December 3, he said.

If the Constitutional Court backs his removal, Yoon will become the second president in South Korean history to be successfully impeached.

- Is this the only case against Yoon? -

Far from it. Yoon has also earned the ignominious honour of becoming South Korea's first sitting president to stand trial in a criminal case.

He faces charges of having committed insurrection in declaring martial law in December, punishable with life in prison or even the death penalty.

That case is expected to drag on well past his impeachment.

"The entire criminal trial process, including appeals to the second and third instances, could take around one to two years," lawyer Min Kyoung-sic told AFP.

"If found guilty, a heavy sentence -- either life imprisonment or a long-term prison sentence -- is highly likely," Min said.

It would make Yoon the third South Korean president to be found guilty of insurrection.

And if Yoon is not impeached, he will be able to remain in power, despite his pending criminal trials.

"It's a contradiction, really. If the president is not removed from office, he would continue to face a criminal trial for insurrection while still serving as the sitting president. That in itself would be highly inappropriate," Yun said.

- What happens if he's removed? -

If Yoon is removed from office, South Korea will have to hold fresh elections within 60 days.

Leading in recent polls is Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition liberal Democratic Party, with all other rivals lagging far behind, according to the latest Gallup poll.

But analysts caution it is too early to say if Lee would emerge victorious, as there is a mere six percent gap between approval ratings for his party and Yoon's People Power Party (PPP).

"The current political landscape following the declaration of martial law differs significantly from the impeachment crisis eight years ago," Gallup Korea said in a report.

And Lee also has legal troubles of his own, facing several trials over alleged corruption and other criminal charges.

He was convicted of violating election laws in November and sentenced to a suspended prison term.

If the Supreme Court upholds that conviction before new polls, he will be barred from running.

C.Williams--SFF