San Francisco Frontiers - What we know about the fire 'pandemic' plaguing Brazil

From the Amazon rainforest to the Pantanal wetlands, flames have consumed millions of hectares of forest and farmland in recent weeks.

Nearly two-thirds of Latin America's biggest country is under smoke.

While fueled by extreme drought, which the government says serves as "a demonstration of the gravity of climate change," many of the fires were set by "criminals," in the words of environment minister Marina Silva.

Here is what we know about Brazil's "fire pandemic," as Supreme Court judge Flavio Dino has described the state of affairs.

- What is the extent? -

According to data collected by satellites of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), a total of 188,623 fires have been identified in Brazil since the beginning of the year.

The total number for last year was 189,926.

The month of September 2024 has been the worst so far, with 61,572 fires recorded in 17 days compared to 46,498 for the whole of September 2023.

The number of blazes in the Amazon this month are already much higher than in 2019, when destruction of the world's largest tropical rain forest sparked an international outcry that placed then president Jair Bolsonaro on the back foot.

The figures for 2024 are still far from the record of 393,915 fires recorded in 2007 -- more than a third in September that year alone.

But this time, "fires are burning in several regions of the country at the same time, which makes the problem more complex to manage," said Ane Alencar, scientific director of the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).

- What are the causes ?

Brazil has been experiencing a prolonged drought since June 2023, according to Suely Araujo, public policy coordinator for Brazil's Climate Observatory -- a collective of non-governmental organizations.

Whatever rain did fall was "less than expected," resulting in dry conditions that can turn the slightest spark into a blaze.

"Climate change is at play, coupled with the El Nino phenomenon," said Araujo.

Alencar said most of the fires were deliberately set, most commonly by farmers clearing land.

Farmers can obtain government permission for such burning, but the practice has been temporarily banned because the fires can easily get out of control under current conditions.

However, "it is probably the law that is least respected in Brazil," Alencar told AFP.

Another culprit is the massive and influential agro-industry sector, which Alencar says has been found to deliberately set fire to public forests to clear land for farmers.

A third cause is more difficult to pinpoint: individual arsonists whose only motive is to "sow chaos," according to federal police chief Humberto Freire.

- What is the outlook?

INPE researcher Karla Longo said that if the fire starters are not stopped, the blazes "will continue until it rains."

The drought that has Brazil in its grips is likely to last until October, she added.

"The rainy season is supposed to start in the second half of October... but it may be delayed due to extreme dryness and low atmospheric humidity," added Ricardo de Camargo, a professor of meteorology at the University of Sao Paulo (USP).

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has vowed to combat climate change and pledged to stop illegal deforestation of the Amazon by 2030, conceded on Tuesday that Brazil was "not 100 percent prepared" to deal with the latest wave of fires as he announced $94 million for the response.

"The authorities should do more, at all levels," said Araujo, who led the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, a federal agency, from 2016 to 2019.

She called for closer coordination between ministries, as well as between national and state governments.

Freire has called for tougher penalties for "environmental crimes."

C.Lewis--SFF